Analysis of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sales at Retail

"We expected the shift in Easter timing to impact produce sales and it did. However, to see continued and robust gains in fresh fruit sales underscores that consumer demand is strong. While the ever-changing news of tariffs is impacting our industry and consumers alike, shoppers are prioritizing fresh produce in their non-stop budget balancing act."

- Joe Watson, IFPA’s VP of Retail, Foodservice and Wholesale

March 2025

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Consumer Sentiment and Easter Timing Affect March Sales

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March 2025 declined to a reading of 57.0, marking a 11.9% month-over-month decline and a 28.2% year-over-year decrease from March 2024. The university attributes the decline to worsening expectations across various economic factors, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions and stock markets.

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The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased slightly, mostly due to a substantial drop in gasoline prices. Food prices told a different story. Foodat-home prices increased 2.4% year-over-year, while food-away-fromhome prices rose 3.8%.
The paralyzing effects of economic uncertainty, including inflation and tariffs, are leading to continued elevated levels of at-home meal preparation. According to the Circana shopper survey, 80% of all meal occasions were prepared at home in March.
Retail is not isolated from behavioral changes in response to economic pressure. Grocery money-saving measures are widespread. Four population groups are showing a greater propensity for seeking savings, according to Circana. These include U.S. Hispanic consumers, households with incomes of less than $50,000 annually, rural households and consumers aged 55 and up. Importantly, households in the upper income brackets are also showing a slowdown in retail spending in recent months.
The March numbers are heavily impacted by the shift in Easter which falls substantially later in 2025 (April 20th) than in 2024 (March 31st). This shifted holiday volume from March to April, but also impacts promotions and prices.